Although Vice President JD Vance might not agree, many observers saw his barn burner of a capstone speech at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest this weekend in Phoenix as the first major moment of the 2028 presidential election. But was Vance crowned as the nominee? It’s complicated.
Anna, in her 30s and a longtime AmFest attendee, was all in on Vance after the speech.
‘I live in Florida and I love Gov. DeSantis, but he is too right wing for the whole country,’ she told me.
Paul, in his 50s and attending his first TPUSA event, sounded a similar sentiment, saying, ‘Who else is there? I don’t see why we wouldn’t just stick with what is already working.’
Almost everyone I spoke to, and I spoke to a lot of people, shared this view. The exception was Kelli, who is 55 and fiercely proud that her two kids in their 20s have remained staunch conservatives in bright blue Seattle. She likes Vance, but said, ‘I think he has to earn it. We need a real primary.’
Something unique is happening here.
After the 2022 midterm disaster for the Republicans, I asked GOP voters who supported both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis if they wanted everyone to go all in for their guy or if they wanted a fight. Everyone chose the latter, but that isn’t true today.
It isn’t so much Vance himself who is garnering near universal support at AmFest, it is the Trump administration, the team the president has assembled. More so than any presidential election since Vice President Al Gore ran in 2000, this is shaping up to be a race for a third term.
In the English language, we don’t have a lot of pleasant-sounding words for a small group of people who maintain power. Utterances like ‘regime’ and ‘cabal’ come off negative, but there is nothing undemocratic about this idea, it’s just a bit untraditional.
In an age in which Congress can’t pass a resolution to tie its own shoes, many voters are looking to the executive branch for consistency and continuity.
I asked Vance himself about this theory and if he saw himself as running for a third Trump term.
‘Honestly, it feels disloyal to even talk about 2028,’ he said. ‘We’re not even a year in! But yes, I am very much on the team. It’s one of the reasons I think the 2028 talk is so premature.’
‘Consider this hypothetical: If an opportunity is presented that would make Marco Rubio look good, be great for the administration, and wouldn’t really involve me (at least publicly), what do I do?’ Vance continued. ‘If I’m optimizing for 2028, I try to kill the opportunity. If I’m optimizing for the country, for the administration, and to be a good human being, we do it.’
To be completely clear, Vance told me flat out he is not thinking about 2028. But his remarks did suggest, I think correctly, that one way or another, it will be the Trump administration and its policies and priorities that will be on the ballot in 2028, not some new vision.
Aside from his position as No. 2 on the Trump team, the other reason that Vance seems to have the inside track for 2028 is the enthusiasm that young conservative voters have for him.
There were teenagers lined up at 4 a.m. to see Vance. I have a teenager, and getting him out of bed before 10 a.m. on a Sunday is a miracle, but the kids love their vice president, there is just no denying it.
We’re a long way from 2028, and there are a lot of dominoes that still have to fall. But as it approaches, it will be the entire Trump administration not just defending its record in the presidential race, but asking to stay in power.
Trump has brought the conservative movement to the mountaintop, in sight of the promised land. Is JD Vance the man who can take it there? Only time will tell, but if you ask almost anyone at AmFest, the answer is a resounding yes.