There’s a year-end rush in all aspects of life.
Businesses try to run up profits in December. Supervisors want to finish employee reviews. Professors must grade exams.
Congress is no different.
There’s always a race to the finish line in December on Capitol Hill.
This year’s adventure is health care. But it’s a practical impossibility that Congress can actually make law on health care before the calendar flips. Premium spikes for 24 million Americans loom on January 1st. Congress tried — kinda — to address this problem. But not really.
So, if you’re that professor handing out the grades at the end of the semester, prepare to flunk some pupils, if not the entire Congressional student body.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., hermetically sealed any possibility of addressing health care in 2025 on Tuesday afternoon.
‘We’re not going to pass anything by the end of this week. But I do think there is a potential pathway in January if Democrats are willing to come to the table,’ said Thune.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., rapidly assembled a bill to allow groups of people – like a bunch of small businesses or a coalition of carpenters – to purchase what they call ‘association’ health plans. In other words, this alliance of people would suddenly have ‘buying power’ if they operate as a team. So if they purchase a set of plans as an ‘association,’ that would defray the cost.
‘This is going to be a great piece of legislation that everybody will unite around,’ said Johnson.
But many Republicans groused privately that it’s one thing to do ‘a health care bill.’ It’s another thing to actually short-circuit the astronomical leap in premiums which hit on January 1.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., spoke frankly about simply re-upping the existing subsidies.
‘We need to do deeper fixes. This is throwing good money after bad. There is some truth to that. But we have constituents. They’re going to have their premiums go up. That doesn’t help them. That’s why I think we need a temporary extension,’ said Bacon.
Many conservatives adamantly oppose continuing the subsidies. Even if that would help their constituents.
But Bacon addresses the realpolitik of the moment.
‘It’s not our fault that these things are skyrocketing. But we are in charge. When you’re in charge, you’ve got to deal with it,’ said Bacon. ‘They’re going to have to find some compromise.’
A Christmas Congressional crunch often compels lawmakers to solve big legislative headaches before the holidays.
‘What intensifies the pressure is January 1st is coming,’ said Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash. ‘It’s having a huge impact on people. I think that is definitely a forcing mechanism.’
The push from Democrats — and some vulnerable Republicans — was to renew the subsidies.
‘I don’t understand why we can’t just do a clean extension of what we just had in place earlier this year,’ said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. ‘I think that is the easiest and most accessible, no nonsense thing for us to do. Especially as the year is coming to an end.’
But that wouldn’t fly with conservative Republicans.
‘I pity the Republican that has to explain why they would propagate or perpetuate a fraud-ridden subsidy from the COVID-era to prop up a failed health care program,’ said House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-Texas.
Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Mo., also opposes extending Obamacare help. But he worries what voters will think of Republicans if the party doesn’t address health care costs.
‘I think that we fail the American people. We fail our base. We fail the Republican Party. Before I got up here, I was frustrated the Republicans didn’t repeal Obamacare,’ said Burlison.
‘Repealing Obamacare’ probably won’t happen. That’s because the GOP has tried to unwind the measure since Democrats passed the first versions of it in late 2009. That’s why even through everyone was talking about health care on Capitol Hill, most were skeptical that lawmakers could solve this in a matter of days.
Despite possible Christmas magic.
And even as Thune punted health care into 2026, the House still nibbled around the edges. Critics argued this was only so House Republicans could inoculate themselves from denunciations that they did nothing on health care.
On Tuesday morning, Johnson nixed an idea from GOP moderates for a temporary extension of expiring Obamacare subsidies because it didn’t comply with Congressional budgetary rules.
But by afternoon, Johnson reversed himself to entertain another plan backed by Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y.
Rather than simply extending federal Obamacare subsidies on an interim basis — which means that insurance companies receive the money — LaLota’s idea provides a two-year tax deduction for those who previously received the Obamacare aid.
President Trump said he would not sign a bill which continued to send money to the insurance companies. So the revamped approach cuts out insurance companies from the equation and policyholders score the tax relief.
‘There’s a real possibility they’ll get a vote on it,’ said Johnson. ‘I’ve tried everything I can to get them that vote on the floor.’
But a roll call vote is a far cry from an actual fix. And it’s uncertain that the House would adopt any amendment and copy it onto the underlying GOP health care bill.
However, a vote on the amendment could give Republicans from swing districts a fig leaf to say they tried to defuse the health care premium crisis. And it’s still unclear if voters might blame Republicans for not addressing health care — now that Democrats copied that issue onto the fall government funding fight.
Health care will be a major issue in the 2026 midterms.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. appeared skeptical that Congress could address the skyrocketing premiums in the near year.
‘You can’t do it after January 1st,’ said Schumer. ‘It’s expired already. It’s not the same as it was before. Once it expires, the toothpaste is out of the tube.
Schumer also refused to commit to deploying the same maneuver about health care as the next government funding deadline approaches on January 30.
In short, Congress isn’t going to solve health care by Christmas.
But perhaps by Groundhog Day?
If that’s the case, any discussion about health care tied to Groundhog Day, probably resembles, well, Groundhog Day.