The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced it will lift its eight month cobalt export ban on October 16, replacing it with annual quotas designed to stabilize global supply and prices.
Bloomberg reported that the country’s Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets (ARECOMS) will allow miners to export 18,125 metric tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025.
Yearly limits of 96,600 metric tons will be set for both 2026 and 2027, the Sunday (September 21) article states. Quotas will be allocated on a pro-rata basis and according to each company’s historical exports.
The export suspension, which was first imposed in February and then extended in June, was triggered by a collapse in prices that drove cobalt to its weakest level in nine years. Benchmark prices earlier this year fell below US$10 a pound, a threshold not breached in more than two decades except for a brief dip in 2015.
The decline in cobalt prices followed a surge in output from Chinese miner CMOC Group (HKEX:3993,SHA:603993,OTC Pink:CMCLF), which has expanded two large projects in the DRC. Since then, cobalt has staged a recovery, with prices for cobalt hydroxide rising more than two-and-a-half times from their lows.
Still, inventories remain high, and the DRC’s government has pressed ahead with tighter controls on the sector.
ARECOMS said the quota system will allow it to intervene in the market by buying back cobalt stocks exceeding companies’ authorized quarterly shipments. It added that 10 percent of future volumes will be set aside for “strategic national projects,” and that quotas could be adjusted depending on market conditions or progress in local refining.
The new rules carry wide implications for both producers and consumers. Mining giant Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), one of the country’s largest operators, has backed the system, while CMOC has opposed it.
Both companies declared force majeure earlier this year after the ban cut off exports.
The Chinese market’s reaction was swift. Prices for cobalt edged lower on Monday (September 22), falling around 2 percent at the open on the Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange as traders reassessed supply expectations and stock levels.
Imports of cobalt intermediates into China, the largest buyer of Congolese output, have already slumped by more than 90 percent in August compared with a year earlier.
The shift also comes during a period of heightened instability in the Eastern DRC, where the government says illegal mineral exploitation is fueling the insurgency of M23 rebels. Despite remaining largely unregulated, the artisanal mining sector continues to account for a significant share of cobalt production.
Market watchers say the DRC’s new cobalt export quotas could sharply reduce effective supply even as production capacity continues to grow. As mentioned, exports will be capped at 96,600 metric tons annually in 2026 and 2027, a figure that amounts to less than half the roughly 220,000 metric tons produced globally in 2024.
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.